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brent harris elliott wave
futures market
advisory service
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cotton (jan. 31, 2009)

although the short-to-intermediate-term pattern in cotton has turned somewhat
"positive", the longer-term formation is likely to remain quite bearish until at
least late 2010. because the decline from the mar 2008 top (91.38) should be a
super-cycle-wave-(c), of the same-degree/magnitude as the huge,
1995-2001/super-cycle-wave-(a) drop (117.20-to-28.20), it stands to reason that
the current bear will probably remain in force for at least half that duration
,i.e., about 3-years. furthermore, since scwave-(c)down should also unfold into
five-waves of cycle-degree, and so far we are only about halfway through the
cycle-wave-two section up, we�re effectively not even two-fifths, or
40%-finished. so, while traders may want to attempt a fairly short-term play on
the long-side, if we happen to see a decent pullback between now and about
mid-february, our primary goal is to get short...once a cycle-wave-two rally
appears to be ending. to that end, while our minimum, upside target for
cycle-wave-two is at the 55.05-55.70 level, the best sell-zone is probably at
57.21-57.59. this area yields the 27.25%-38.2%-retracement combination from the
1995 and 2008 highs, as well as appreciations of 100% and 55.9% from the 2001
and 2008 lows. finally, while our expected, cycle-wave-three decline probably
won�t take-out the 2008/cycle-wave-one low of 36.70 by more than
5.00-6.00-points, especially if a diagonal triangle/(c)-wave is actually
unfolding here, the eventual minimum, downside target (for late 2010-early 2011)
is at the 28.24-26.63 level. this area yields the 72.75%-times scwave-(a)
projection, and depreciations of 76.4% and 69.1% from the 1995 and 2008 highs.
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