brent harris elliott wave
futures market advisory service

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cotton (jan. 31, 2009)

although the short-to-intermediate-term pattern in cotton has turned somewhat "positive", the longer-term formation is likely to remain quite bearish until at least late 2010. because the decline from the mar 2008 top (91.38) should be a super-cycle-wave-(c), of the same-degree/magnitude as the huge, 1995-2001/super-cycle-wave-(a) drop (117.20-to-28.20), it stands to reason that the current bear will probably remain in force for at least half that duration ,i.e., about 3-years. furthermore, since scwave-(c)down should also unfold into five-waves of cycle-degree, and so far we are only about halfway through the cycle-wave-two section up, we�re effectively not even two-fifths, or 40%-finished. so, while traders may want to attempt a fairly short-term play on the long-side, if we happen to see a decent pullback between now and about mid-february, our primary goal is to get short...once a cycle-wave-two rally appears to be ending. to that end, while our minimum, upside target for cycle-wave-two is at the 55.05-55.70 level, the best sell-zone is probably at 57.21-57.59. this area yields the 27.25%-38.2%-retracement combination from the 1995 and 2008 highs, as well as appreciations of 100% and 55.9% from the 2001 and 2008 lows. finally, while our expected, cycle-wave-three decline probably won�t take-out the 2008/cycle-wave-one low of 36.70 by more than 5.00-6.00-points, especially if a diagonal triangle/(c)-wave is actually unfolding here, the eventual minimum, downside target (for late 2010-early 2011) is at the 28.24-26.63 level. this area yields the 72.75%-times scwave-(a) projection, and depreciations of 76.4% and 69.1% from the 1995 and 2008 highs.

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