brent harris elliott wave
futures market advisory service

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hogs (jan. 31, 2009)

while accurately forecasting the hog market is usually more challenging than all other commodities, due primarily to the huge-gaps left on the continuation chart between the fall-winter contracts, versus the spring-summer months, the long-term count here appears to be quite bearish! in short, because we just ended a 9 �-year bull cycle; at the august 2008 high of 90.00, and so far we may have only completed just an initial, primary wave-[a] section down, this market should have a long way to go...before a major bottom is at hand. note, that a completed, cycle-wave-a decline will not be in place, until a larger, [a]-[b]-[c] decline is traced-out from the aug top. so, once an intervening, primary wave-[b] rally develops, traders/hedgers should have another great opportunity to sell this market. to that end, if the nearby feb contract "holds" the november continuation chart low of 53.80, before expiring on feb 13, then there�s a good chance that a final, (c)-wave rally will peak-out by about mid-april...probably around the 74.00 level in the may/june 2009 contracts. however, if the nearby contract first breaks the 53.80 low, then things get a little more complicated. in this case, since our next major, downside target is at the 51.25-50.30 level, it�s possible that primary wave-[a] will not bottom for another month or so...in the soon-to-be-nearby april contract. in this event, given the huge premium that the summer months are currently carrying, the subsequent, primary wave-[b] "corrective-rally" may not peak on the continuation chart until may or june. however, this doesn�t necessarily mean that prices will actually be much higher that current prices at that time...basis the may/june/july contracts. i told you it was complicated. anyhow, the bottom line here, is that we want to be sellers...whenever the next one-month-plus rally occurs-via the continuation chart. note, that my eventual, downside target for cycle-wave-a is at 44.82 minimum, with a drop to 42.22/39.65 also quite possible. these areas, however, probably won�t be hit until the winter 2009/2010 time-frame.

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