Brent Harris Elliott Wave
Futures Market Advisory Service

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Orange Juice (Jan. 31, 2009)

While there’s still no way to be certain of the precise, long-term count in the OJ market, BOTH of the viable interpretations strongly indicate that the LARGEST RALLY since the 2007 top is either already underway, OR it will be very soon. Given our Preferred Count, which indicates that the 2004-2007 advance (54.20-to-209.50) ONLY completed an INITIAL, CYCLE-WAVE-A, the MOST BULLISH POSITION IN FIVE-YEARS should be at hand. Since this scenario indicates that we should now see a "good-trending", FIVE-WAVE ADVANCE of the same-degree as the entire 2004-2007/A-wave, it’s likely that prices will AT LEAST RE-TEST THE 2007 TOP OF 209.50. Of course, since we’re now pretty much past this year’s "freeze-season", the real "acceleration phase" under this count may not occur until late 2009?? In assessing our Alternate Interpretation, which indicates that the 2007 top actually marked the end of a MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF SUPER-CYCLE-DEGREE (SCYCLE-WAVE-(X)), we should now be at, or very close to ending an INITIAL, A-wave decline of at least CYCLE-DEGREE; if not SUPER-CYCLE DEGREE. In this case, while a LESS DYNAMIC RALLY is likely, a B-wave should still take prices back-up to AT LEAST A 38.2%-retracement of the A-wave decline, or 117.55 MINIMUM. Although, based on the "magnitude" of the drop from the 2007 top, I suspect that even a wave-B rally here will be MUCH LARGER than that. In any event, once a "three-wave rally" of the same-degree as the entire 2007-2008/2009 decline has been trace-out, then we’ll have to be especially careful on the long-side. At that point, a MAJOR, DOWNWARD REVERSAL could occur? Until then, traders should focus on BUYING WEAKNESS. The KEY SUPPORT/BUY-ZONES are at 76.90-75.65, 72.60-70.90 and 68.55-66.15 MAXIMUM? Although I don’t expect a close below 66.15 to occur, the next lower support would be at 64.75-62.85.

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