SOYBEANS: Again, since we still need to see a MOVE-ABOVE last week’s 10.12 1/4 high in Nov beans, in order to make a case for a completed, a-b-c rally off the Oct 5 low, a SIGNIFICANT, wave-(2) peak could be hit...very soon. However, due to the duration of the current pullback, I think it’s now quite likely that prices will EXCEED the MINIMUM TARGET at 10.13-10.18. In which case, a rather CRITICAL JUNCTURE will probably be reached shortly thereafter, assuming prices can then advance to our NEXT KEY RESISTANCE AREA; at 10.44 ½-10.51. At that point, IF I can make a good case for a completed, "three-wave rally", we will want to GO SHORT. IF a completed advance can NOT be labeled, however, OR the next pullback traces-out a "bullish-three",then CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRICES could be indicated. In this event, BEFORE the long-term downtrend resumes, we could see an "acceleration" to the 11.09 1/4-11.18 ½/11.41-11.50 AREA(S), with a move as high as 11.82-11.97 also possible ,i.e., IF a FINAL, (c)-wave rally is actually developing. Anyhow, for now, short-term traders can still focus on the long-side. However, it still looks like the "stop" needs to go BELOW the 9.39 ½-9.29 ½ support area. There’s also support at 9.86 ½-9.73, 9.63-954 and 9.16-9.14, with the near-term resistance at 9.79-9.89 and 10.06 ½-10.18.

CORN: Since it looks like we have indeed confirmed that a LARGER, Primary wave-[b] advance is still in progress from the Dec 2008 low in corn (2.90), we should have a selling opportunity fairly soon...that will be MUCH BETTER than I ever thought possible. Note, that once a FINAL, (c)-wave advance is traced-out from the Sept 8 low, the pattern will call for a Primary wave-[c]decline of the SAME-DEGREE as the BIG, June-Dec 2008 drop. To that end, since it looks like we are now in a "seventh-wave" rally, within a larger, "nine-wave extension",it will probably take AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK OR SO to complete the move. Note, that we need to finish "wave-seven" up, trace-out about a 3-day/wave-eight pullback, AND THEN STAGE ONE MORE SHOT-UP to new rally highs ,i.e.,wave-9-of-(c)). Anyhow, while I still have GOOD RESISTANCE at 4.00 ½-4.02 ½, the BEST TARGETS are at 4.18-4.20 AND 4.34-4.37. There’s also some resistance at 3.89-3.91 ½/4.10, with the support at 3.84 ½-3.78 ½/3.67 ½-3.56 ½/3.45/3.39 ½.

WHEAT: Although there could be a "change" in or Preferred Count, IF the Dec wheat fails to rally sharply in the next day or so, the continuation chart pattern continues to suggest that we are now in a FINAL, wave-(c)advance. Thus, IF prices can reach the key 14.58%-50%-retracement/resistance combination from the 2008/2009 highs in the next couple of days, or 5.51-5.58 ½, HRT AND hedgers should probably go short. At that point, the BEST COUNT will call for a FINAL, Primary wave-[c]decline to AT LEAST 4.18 ½-4.07. It should be noted, however, that prices could rally as high as the 5.78-5.87 3/4 and/or 5.98 3/4-6.00 1/4 (MAX!) level(s), so we’ll have to monitor the intra-day pattern closely. Support is at 5.09 3/4-5.05, 4.92-4.81 3/4 and 4.67-4.57.

COTTON: While the near-term configuration in the Dec cotton continues to look pretty BULLISH, it’s possible that at VERY IMPORTANT JUNCTURE will be hit in the next week or so. Note, IF the pullback from last week’s 69.49 high can remain in force until Wed-Thurs, then we’ll ONLY need to stage ONE MORE LEG-UP to new rally highs, in order to make a case for a completed, "five-wave rally" off the Aug 27 low. At which point, we’ll have to watch very closely, as we could be hitting a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO TOP. However, IF...at that time, the following pullback fails to trace-out a "bearish-five", then MUCH HIGHER PROJECTIONS will probably be indicated. In this case, the advance from the Aug 27 low likely turn into a "nine-wave extension". Anyhow, we still want to be a buyer, IF our KEY SUPPORT AT 65.66-64.81 is hit in the next day or two. There is also support at 66.48-66.31/63.91-63.52,w/resist.at 70.06-70.50/72.15-72.70

HOGS: [See NEW TRADES]As long as the Dec hogs DO NOT EXCEED the same HUGE RESISTANCE CLUSTER that produced the Sept continuation chart high (54.05),or 54.00-to-54.77 (by much?), our Preferred Count will continue to call for a FINAL, "fifth-wave decline" to AT LEAST THE 42.55-42.10 LEVEL. However, IF a strong close ABOVE 54.77 occurs first, OR we see a penetration of the "wave-one low" at 55.50 intra-day, then we’ll have to conclude that an [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top has bottomed. In this case, since prices should now be in a rally that is AT LEAST OF THE SAME-DEGREE as the Nov 2008-April 2009 advance, prices will likely remain in a general UPTREND until Jan-Feb 2010, with a MINIMUM TARGET at 60.75-60.97. The next higher resistance areas are at 55.50-55.95 and 57.22-57.92, w/support at 53.30-52.60/51.25/50.30-49.22/47.95.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

STOCKS: Since the Dec S&P has now reached our next GOOD RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 1099.50-1103.25, it’s possible that a fairly significant, 10-to-20-day setback could be underway. However, because our BEST RESISTANCE AREA IS AT 1125.75-to-1132.50, AND there’s NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a MAJOR, CYCLE-WAVE-ONE PEAK....YET, I DON’T think the risk justifies the reward-potential. Note, even IF a 2-to-4-week drop is going to occur now, we’ll still need ONE MORE SHOT-UP TO NEW HIGHS, BEFORE a BIG, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO DROP is likely. Anyhow, I’m hoping that we’ll only see a minor pullback here. In which case, we probably will be looking to SELL, IF prices can then advance to the 1125.75-1132.50 area. Support’s at 1082.00, 1072.50, 1067.50, 1057.75-1053.00, 1045.25 and 1038.50.

SILVER: Again, since clear, "five-wave patterns" are in place from BOTH the July 13 AND Sept 28 lows in the Dec silver, AND last week’s 18.175 high also occurred right at our POWERFUL 17.94-18.315 RESISTANCE AREA, I can certainly make a STRONG CASE FOR A MAJOR TOP. Because we could have completed EITHER a Primary wave-[a] advance, OR a MUCH LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-B (from the 2008 low), we could now see a drop of AT LEAST THE "same-size" as the June-July decline (-$3.77), OR a decline of TWICE THAT AMOUNT...OR MORE? Of course, there are an A LOT of markets that appear to have confirmed HIGHER PROJECTIONS here, so we should probably keep our stop on shorts to near 18.175. Note, IF we now EXCEED 18.175, then we could see an immediate advance to the next key area at 19.67-19.825. Support’s at 17.42-17.395/17.165-17.01/16.75-16.665/16.37-16.19/15.72.

COFFEE: Although there are a couple of different ways in which to label the wave-progression off the Sept 29 low in Dec coffee, the overall formation continues to strongly indicate that CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PRICES are likely...near-term. Note, BEFORE the stage ought to be set for a GREAT SELLING OPPORTUNITY, it looks like prices will advance to the KEY RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 154.10-156.85. This area yields the "thrust-wave projection", the 76.4%-times wave-A projection, the 38.2%-41.15%-80.9%-retracement combination from the 1977/1997-2008 highs, AND appreciations of 276.4%, 52.95%, 38.2%, 30.9% and 23.6% from the 2001/2008/July 2009/Aug 2009/Sept 2009 lows. Thus, IF we happen to get a decent pullback BEFORE this area is reached, aggressive traders should go long KEY SUPPORT is at 141.05-139.20 and 137.20-136.90, with MAX SUPPORT at 135.00-134.70. Near term resistance is at 143.75, 146.00-147.10 and 148.60-149.40.

COCOA: Although we technically still need to EXCEED the 2008 high of 3385 in Dec cocoa, in order to "negate" our scenario of a major, CYCLE-WAVE-B TOP,this week’s penetration of the 3280-3314 resistance AND the Oct 9 high (3329) certainly suggests that such a "penetration" is imminent. In which case, since this development will effectively mean that the Bull Cycle from the 2000 low is still "in force", there would literally be NO LIMIT to how high prices can go. Note, while I do show decent resistance at BOTH the 3443-3461 and 3540-3582 levels, the "thrust-wave" projection from the 2008-2009/Contracting Triangle suggests that the next likely objective is at 3734-3786. Support for Dec is now at 3327-3324, 3292, 3268, 3245-3234, 3196-3187 and 3086-3065.

OJ: IF a bullish, a-b-c decline unfolds from HUGE RESISTANCE AT 117.55-119.95 IN Nov OJ, OR a close ABOVE 119.95 occurs, then we’ll probably confirm a SUPER BULLISH, CYCLE-WAVE-C ADVANCE (back-up to the 2007 high of 209.50). However, IF a "five-down" occurs instead, then the entire advance from the Feb low may be OVER. Support’s at 114.00-113.25/110.95-110.00/107.85-106.75/105.00-103.50

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 10/21/09

WHEAT:HRT/hedgers(25%)can sell Dec wheat at 5.50 1/4, with a stop at 5.69 3/4

COTTON:HIGH RISK TRADERS(HRT)can buy Dec cotton at 65.71,with a stop at 63.49

HOGS: HRT/hedgers LOWER the stop on short Dec hogs to 54.97 (+$650).

SILVER: Traders keep the stop on your short Dec mini silver at 18.175(+$367).

COFFEE: HRT can buy Dec coffee at 139.55, using a stop at 136.45.