SOYBEANS: [See Chart] Although we’ll probably have to LOWER our sell-order in the Jan beans, IF last week’s 9.62 low is violated first, I would sure be able to make a whale of a case for a completed, a-b-c rally off the Oct 5 low, IF we could just get a FINAL, wave-c advance...NOW! Note, assuming a [c-wave advance] can make it past the Oct 23 top of 10.29 1/4, then we’ll have a HUGE RESISTANCE CLUSTER just a little bit higher; at about 10.44 ½-to-10.55 ½. This key area incorporates the 30.9%-41.15%-61.8%-retracement combination from the 2008, 2009 and Aug 2009 highs, appreciations of 161.8%, 34.55%, 19.1%and 9.1%-from the 1999/2008/2009/Oct 2009 lows, AND the 61.8%-times wave-a projection. By the way, in the event we do see another good "spike-up" here, traders should note, that prices could also reach the MAXIMUM RESISTANCE AREA (for a wave-(2) correction), or 10.72 ½-10.86. So, the "stop" probably needs to go ABOVE 10.86. Near-term resistance for Jan is at 10.11-10.18, with the support at 10.03 ½, 9.95, 9.86 ½-9.73, 9.63-9.54, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½ and 8.92 ½-8.81.

CORN: Since the drop from the Oct 23 top in Dec corn (4.13 ½) has now clearly EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other setback in the past 6-weeks or so, we should have confirmed a completed, "leg-up" from the Sept bottom. In which case, since this now also makes it possible to label a completed, Primary wave [b]advance off the Dec 2008 low, I guess hedgers (in particular) probably have to try and SELL the current bounce.Note, because we may have only just finished wave-(1) down here, of a MUCH LARGER, five-wave/[c]-wave drop (which eventually projects to the 2.65-2.60 level), the "downside risk" is pretty BIG. Thus, IF the Dec corn happens to "spike-up" to REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE AT 4.00-4.02, preferably in conjunction with a rally to 10.44 ½-10.55 ½ in Jan beans, then HEDGERS (only) can go short. I DON’T LIKE the Oct 23 high at 4.13 ½, however, as I have ABSOLUTELY NO PROJECTIONS near that area. So, non-hedgers should probably stand-aside? Note, that MY BEST RESISTANCE IS AT 4.18-4.20 and 4.34-4.37. Near-term resistance is at 3.89-3.91 ½, 4.00-4.02 and 4.10, with the support now at 3.84 ½-3.78 ½, 3.66-3.56 ½, 3.45 and 3.39 ½-3.34.

WHEAT: Although it’s possible that the Oct 23 high in Dec wheat (5.74 3/4)-could have marked the end of just an INITIAL, (a)-wave section up, OR a FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT, Primary wave-[b], BOTH COUNTS strongly indicate that the current bounce is only a "corrective-wave". Thus, IF we can pick the right sell-zone here, we should have a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE. AND, if the latter count is correct, it could also be HIGH POTENTIAL. Note, whether is happens now, OR AFTER an eventual, (c)-wave/spike-up,the Primary wave-[c]section down projects to AT LEAST 4.18 ½-4.07. Anyhow, while our FIRST, REALLY GOOD RESISTANCE AREA here is at 5.25 ½-5.32 ½, there’s AT LEAST A 50%-CHANCE that prices will try for a "re-test" of the FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 5.51-5.59. Thus, at least for now, will take a crack at selling near the higher level. Support is now at 5.09-5.02, 4.92-4.81 3/4, 4.67 3/4-4.56 3/4 and 4.43-4.32.

COTTON: As long as the Dec cotton does NOT DROP BELOW the Oct 27 bottom at 66.10 first, our Preferred Count will continue to strongly indicate that we are now in a FINAL, "fifth-wave advance"....from the same low. In which case, once a lesser, "five-wave rally" can be labeled-off the Oct 27 bottom, we should have an INCREDIBLE SELLING OPPORTUNITY. At that time, the pattern will call for a CYCLE-WAVE-THREE decline of the same-degree as the 2008 drop, with a MINIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET AT JUST UNDER 36.70. Based on the intra-day pattern however, it does look like it will probably take at least a couple more days, BEFORE we’ll be able to make a case for a "final top". Anyhow, while our MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET here is at 70.06-70.50, the MOST LIKELY AREA is at 72.15-72.70. By the way, there’s even a SLIGHT CHANCE that prices will "blow-off" to our MAX LEVEL AT 74.78-75.75? Near-term resistance is at 67.70-68.04, with the support at 67.37-67.10, 66.50, 65.66-64.81 and 63.52-63.14.

HOGS: Since we’ve now not only confirmed a completed, [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top in hogs, but the wave-progression from the Aug low (43.05) also appears to be right in the "heart" of a wave-3-of-(c),OR wave-3-of-(3), it continues to look like prices are headed for the 60.77-61.12 level. This key area yields the 38.2%-61.8%-retracement combination from the 2008/2009 highs. Anyhow, we want to be a BUYER on the next drop. KEY SUPPORT is at 57.15, 55.62-55.25(BEST!)/54.20/53.30-52.60, w/n.t. resist. at 57.72-57.92 and 59.27-59.50.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

OJ: Considering that the Oct continuation chart high at 118.20 in OJ not only occurred right at the MINIMUM TARGET discussed over the past several months, or 117.55-to-119.95, but the subsequent drop has now also yielded a pretty convincing, "timing sell-signal", it certainly looks like SIGNIFICANT TOP has been confirmed. Note, IF in fact a TRIPLE-THREE formation off the Feb low has ENDED, then should now see decline of AT LEAST the same-degree as the entire advance. Which, at present, appears to yield a MINIMUM OBJECTIVE at about the 93.70-90.85 level (nearby). And, IF we’ve actually completed a CYCLE-WAVE-B, then we could be looking at a drop all the way back-down to the Feb low/64.60. Anyhow, IF JAN can now also post a strong close BELOW MAX! SUPPORT at about 111.85-109.00, then we’ll be looking to ADD to shorts. There’s also support for Jan at 106.20 and 103.35, w/resist. at 113.30-115.55 and 117.95-118.75.

COFFEE: While last week’s multiple, intra-day "penetrations" of our critical support at 135.35-134.70 in Dec coffee were quite "troubling"...at the time, we never actually closed below 134.70 in electronic trade. Thus, in light of Monday’s HUGE RALLY, it obviously looks like our BULLISH-COUNT was right. In which case, since we should now be in just the "third-wave" section up, of a LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-C, this market could really "accelerate". Note, while our OPTIMUM TARGET here was (?) at 154.10-156.85, we WON’T be able to make a case for a major top, UNTIL we finish "three-up", stage a "wave-four" pullback, and then trace-out a FINAL, "fifth-wave" advance. Thus, IF 154.10-156.85 is hit right-away, it will probably ONLY produce a moderate setback. Anyhow, the support is now at 140.65-140.25/139.35-138.95/137.70-137.05/135.35-134.70 MAX?, with the near-term resistance at 143.00-143.75 and 146.10-147.10.

SILVER: Since our LEAST BEARISH COUNT in Dec silver continues to strongly indicate that we will see a Primary wave-[b] decline to AT LEAST the 14.70-14.43 level; if not to 13.91-13.72, we’re definitely looking to ADD to our short-position here. However, because we technically still need to EXCEED last week’s 16.12 low, in order to confirm that EITHER a larger "five-wave", OR "seven-wave" pattern" down is actually unfolding, I’m a little reluctant to ADD right now. Note, IF we’ve already completed an INITIAL, (a)-wave section down, then we could see a pretty "sharp-bounce" on the (b)-wave, possibly ALL THE WAY back-up to the CRITICAL 17.94-18.17 RESISTANCE. Our closest area of GOOD RESISTANCE was hit Tues., however, or 17.125-17.295. So, depending on what happens Wed., we’ll probably have a good idea of which count is correct. There’s also resist. at 17.54-17.70, w/the next higher areas (after 17.940-18.17) at 18.40-18.47/18.745-18.835. Support’s at 17.16-17.01/16.75-16.665/16.37-16.19/15.72.

STOCKS: Although the longer-term pattern in the S&P still indicates that we should see an advance to AT LEAST 1125.75-1132.50, BEFORE the risk of a BIG, CYCLE-WAVE-TWO DECLINE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, the recent "penetration" of key support at 1038.50-1035.25 does look near-term BEARISH. Note, because we’ve probably confirmed that the drop from the Oct 20 top (1099.00) is a Primary wave-[4], of the same-degree as the June-July/Primary wave-[2] decline, prices will likely remain in a SIDEWAYS-TO-LOWER TREND for a similar duration, or about 20-trading days ,i.e.,until about Nov 16. Thus, IF we do get a multi-day/wave-(b) rally BEFORE our OPTIMUM, DOWNSIDE TARGET AT ABOUT 1000.00-995.00 IS HIT, we’ll look to go short. Other support is at 1026.25/1019.00-1009.50, with resistance at 1038.00-1045.50/1058.00/1067.00-1077.25 (good!)/1099.00.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 11/04/09

SOYBEANS: Traders/hedgers (25%) can sell 2-Jan mini beans at 10.44, using a stop at 10.91 1/4.

CORN: Hedgers only (25%) can sell Dec corn at 3.99, using a stop at 4.13 3/4.

WHEAT: HRT/hedgers(25%)can sell Dec wheat at 5.49 3/4,with a stop at 5.74 1/4

HOGS: Traders can buy the Dec hogs at 55.55, using a stop at 53.80.

SILVER: We are short a Dec mini silver at 17.925 (+$745). Keep stop at 17.37.

OJ: HRT are short Jan OJ from 117.75 (+$870). Keep the stop at 117.15.