SOYBEANS: Considering that the last "shot-up" in the beans not only MISSED our OPTIMUM SELL-ZONE AT 10.44 ½-10.55 in the nearby contract, or about 10.50½-10.61 basis Jan, but we didn’t even get over the Oct 23 high(s), it looks like the action over the next day or two will be "critical". IF the next bounce can produce a "five-up" on the intra-day charts, then I think we still have a decent chance of seeing a FINAL, c-wave rally to the aforementioned target(s). However, IF the next "bounce" EITHER produces a "bearish-three", OR another drop to new sell-off lows follows, then we’ll have to jump-in short...with both feet. At that point, the MOST BEARISH POSITION SINCE 2008 should be at hand, as prices will be entering the "heart" of a wave-(3), of Primary wave-[c]. Near-term resistance for Jan is at 9.64-9.72/9.82-9.93/10.12 ½-10.24, with the support at 9.58?, 9.45 ½-9.35 ½ MAX?, 9.22 ½-9.11 and 8.98 ½-8.87.

CORN: Since I can make a decent case for a completed, Primary wave-[b]advance off the 2008 low in corn; at the Oct 23 high of 4.13 ½, our MISSED SELL at Wednesday’s 3.99 high (by 1/4-cent!) could really come back to "haunt" HEDGERS. Note, IF a Primary wave-[c]decline is indeed underway here, then we could now be poised to enter the "heart" of the wave-(3), of-[c] section down...which eventually projects prices to the 2.65-2.60 level. Of course, this market has behaved "strangely" over the past several months, AND the Oct top at 4.13 ½ DID NOT OCCUR AT ANY OF MY MAJOR RESISTANCE NUMBERS, so I wouldn’t panic just yet. Note, depending on how the intra-day pattern unfolds over the next day or so, there’s still a chance that we could stage one more rally to the key 4.00-4.02 resistance; if not to our MAJOR RESISTANCE CLUSTERS AT 4.18-4.20 and/or 4.34-4.38. Near-term resistance is at 3.69-3.72, 3.78 ½-3.82 ½, 3.89-3.91 ½, 4.00-4.02 and 4.10, with support at 3.66-3.56 ½, 3.45 and 3.39 ½-3.34.

WHEAT: Although I was hoping that the Dec wheat might "spike-up" to our BEST RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 5.51-5.59, this week’s 5.28 1/4 high did occur right at our FIRST REALLY GOOD SELL-ZONE; or 5.25 ½-5.32 ½. Thus, since key support at 5.09-5.02 has now also been exceeded, it looks like our expected wave-(2), or wave-(b) top has already been hit. In which case, since we could now be entering wave-(3), of a LARGER, Primary wave-[c]decline, a PRETTY BEARISH POSITION appears to be at hand. Note, that BEFORE Primary wave-[c]ends, prices should fall to AT LEAST the 4.18 ½-4.07 level. There are a couple of "alternate counts" here that could still result in another decent "shot-up", however, so we DON’T necessarily want to "chase" the short-side...at least NOT until we see what happens early next week. Near-term resistance is at 5.03-5.07 1/4, with the support now at 4.92-4.81 3/4, 4.67 3/4-4.56 3/4 and 4.43-4.32.

COTTON: Although we will now look to go short IMMEDIATELY, IF the Dec cotton "violates" the Oct 27 low at 66.10, our Preferred Count still suggests that we need to stage a FINAL, "fifth-wave advance". In which case, once the Oct top at 69.49 is EXCEEDED, we should have a FANTASTIC SELLING OPPORTUNITY. At that point, the pattern will call for a CYCLE-WAVE-THREE decline of the same-degree as the BIG 2008 drop, yielding a MINIMUM DOWNSIDE TARGET AT 35.69. Anyhow, assuming we do "hold" 66.10 initially, our MINIMUM, UPSIDE TARGET will remain at 70.06-70.50. However, the BEST SELL-ZONE clearly occurs at the 72.15-72.70, and there’s even a slight chance prices will "blow-off" to our MAX LEVEL AT 74.78-75.75. Near-term resistance is now at 67.17-68.04, with the support at 66.50, 65.66-64.42, 63.52-63.14 and 62.06-61.39.

HOGS: Since the Dec hogs have now pulled-back to our HUGE SUPPORT CLUSTER; at the 50%-19.1%-30.9%-retracement combination from the 1998/2009/Oct 2009 lows, AND depreciations of 38.2%, 23.6% and 5.568% from the 2008/April 2009/July 2009 highs, or 55.65-to-55.15, it looks like traders should have a HIGH/REWARD/HIGH POTENTIAL buying opportunity. Note, as long as we hold fairly close to this area, there’s an excellent chance that we’ll see the Dec hogs rally to the 60.77-61.12 level...BEFORE going off-the-board. Near-term resistance is at 57.55-58.12 and 59.27-59.50, with support also at 54.30 and 53.30-52.40.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: [No change] While it appears highly UNLIKELY that the decline from the Oct 14 high in Dec silver (18.175) has finished, the "magnitude" of the current bounce has probably confirmed our LEAST BEARISH interpretation. Under this count, which indicates that we are either in a wave-(4), or wave-[b]correction, we should still see a pretty "sharp", c-wave decline emerge within the next couple of days. The downside objective(s) for which, could be as high as 16.37-16.19 (given a wave-(4)), or as low as 14.70-14.43/13.91-13.72 (IF we’re in a larger, wave-[b]). Anyhow, either way, IF I’m right, the current advance SHOULD NOT EXCEED OUR POWERFUL RESISTANCE CLUSTER AT 17.94-18.17 on a closing basis, OR 18.40-18.47 intra-day. IF this area is violated, however, then we’ll have no choice but to conclude that prices are headed for the NEXT MAJOR RESISTANCE AREA; at 19.69-19.70. Near-term resist. is at 17.54-17.70, with the support at 17.395/17.165-17.01/16.75-16.665/16.37-16.19/15.72-15.41.

STOCKS: IF my Preferred Count is correct here, and the rally off Monday’s 1026.00 low in the Dec S&P is indeed just a (b)-wave, then aggressive traders should have a pretty good selling opportunity. Note, that once wave-(b) peaks, we should see a FINAL, wave-(c)decline to AT LEAST the 1019.00-1009.50 level; if not to our BEST TARGET AT 1000.00-995.00. By the way, our "time-analysis" also suggests that the OPTIMUM TIME FOR THE NEXT LOW IS AROUND NOV 16. Anyhow, OUR KEY RESISTANCE/SELL-ZONE is between 1067.00-and-1077.25, with the MAX! at 1085.50. Support’s at 1060.00/1046.00/1038.50-1035.25/1026.25/1019.00-1009.50.

OJ: Although it still looks like a MAJOR, "timing sell-signal" may have already been triggered in the Jan OJ, the drop from the Oct top has ONLY traced-out a "three-wave pattern"...so far. Thus, since prices have also(so far?)bottomed right at the SUPER CRITICAL SUPPORT outlined in the Oct Quarterly Report or 107.85-105.00 in the nearby contract, AND 111.85-109.00 basis Jan, it looks like a VERY PIVOTAL JUNCTURE is at hand. IF the Jan OJ can now drop BELOW this week’s 109.35 low, then we’ll want to ADD to shorts, as this development will likely confirm a decline to AT LEAST THE 93.70-90.85 LEVEL. However, IF prices first EXCEED the Oct highs at 118.20 Nov, AND 121.60 Jan, then we’ll have to figure that the larger movement from the Feb bottom is actually unfolding into CYCLE-WAVE-C. In this event, a move back-up to the 2007 top (209.50) could be indicated. KEY RESIST. for Jan is at 115.20-116.05/118.15-119.25/121.75-124.15

COFFEE: Since the Dec coffee has (so far) FAILED to "accelerate" through the Oct top at 145.40, I suppose we could see prices stage another "test" of our CRITICAL SUPPORT AT 135.35-134.70. Overall, however, because there’s NO VIABLE WAY to make a case for a completed advance the 2008 low (yet), aggressive traders should probably EITHER focus on the long-side, OR stay the heck OUT. Note because it looks like we’ve only completed an initial, Primary wave-[1]rally, of a LARGER, CYCLE-WAVE-C advance (from the Sept 29 low), we still need to trace-out a Primary wave-[3] advance, a Primary wave-[4] pullback, and then a FINAL, Primary wave-[5] section up ,i.e., BEFORE A MAJOR TOP IS IN PLACE. Anyhow, one way or another, the resulting THRUST-WAVE PROJECTION from the June-Sept/Contracting Triangle formation indicates that prices ought to reach AT LEAST THE 154.10-156.85 LEVEL. AND, there’s even a chance that we could go as high as 163.20-164.40. Support is at 139.35-138.95, 137.70-137.05 AND 135.35-134.70 MAX?, with n.t. resist. at 139.60-140.40/ 143.00-143.75/146.10-147.10.

COCOA: Since the cocoa market has rallied nearly 1,000-points over the past 5-months, WITHOUT a major pullback, it would seemingly be VERY RISKY to try and go long here. However, my Preferred Count does indicate that we should see a FINAL ADVANCE (?) TO AT LEAST THE 3542-3590 LEVEL, so aggressive traders may want to take a shot. To that end, while there’s a chance that prices could drop to my MAX SUPPORT AT 3013-2991, the TWO BEST BUY-ZONES appear to be at 3187-3163 and 3105-3082. Resist. is at 3293-3348, 3443-3479 and 3542-3590.

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 11/09/09

COTTON: IF Dec cotton DROPS BELOW 66.05, then traders/hedgers (25%) can go short on a bounce to 66.78, using a stop at 68.96.

HOGS: Traders bought the Dec hogs at 55.65 (+$20). Keep the stop at 53.87.

SILVER: Traders can sell a Dec mini silver at 17.93, with a stop at 18.54.

STOCKS: HRT sold the Dec mini S&P at 1066.75. Keep the stop at 1086.75.

OJ: HRT are short Jan OJ from 117.75 (+$270). Keep the stop at 117.15.