SOYBEANS: [See Chart] Given that the action over the past week or so in the beans has now strongly confirmed that the rally off the Oct 5 low was/is(?)-ONLY a "corrective wave-(2)", the overall formation here indicates that a wave-(3) decline to the 7.98-7.82 level is forthcoming. However, because last week’s high MISSED our best target at 10.44 ½-10.51 (Nov), AND we never had a clear, c-wave section up, I still think there’s a reasonable chance that we are only in a wave-b pullback currently. In which case, we could have ONE HECK OF A SELLING OPPORTUNITY in a few days, IF prices can now stage a FINAL, wave-c advance to the aforementioned 10.44 ½-10.51 area. Of course, IF we DON’T see a sharp upturn...now, then we will look to sell at considerably LOWER LEVELS. Near-term resistance for Nov is at 9.85-9.87 and 10.06 ½-10.18, with support at 9.82-9.73, 9.63-9.54, 9.39 ½-9.29 ½ and 8.92 ½-8.81. To get the support/resistance numbers for the Jan beans, just ADD 2-cents to the Nov figures.

CORN: Although I DO NOT HAVE ANY GOOD PROJECTIONS at last week’s 4.13 ½ high in Dec corn, the drop from that top has now placed this market perilously close to a BIG SELL-SIGNAL. Considering that the current decline has already (slightly) EXCEEDED the greatest "magnitude" of any other setback since the Sept low, AND now we only need to "break" Wednesday’s 3.63 3/4 low in order to confirm a "timing sell-signal" as well, we may be looking to LOWER our sights on going short....significantly. Of course, IF this market can "rise from the ashes"....NOW!, then we’ve also still got a shot at a FINAL, wave-five/wave-9 advance to FAR BETTER RESISTANCE AT THE 4.18-4.20 LEVEL. Anyhow,I’ll be watching the intra-day pattern very closely, to see IF a "bearish-three" unfolds. Near-term resistance is at 3.77 ½-3.82 ½, 3.89-3.91 ½, 4.00-4.02 and 4.10, with the support now at 3.81 ½-3.78 ½, 3.67 ½-3.56 ½, 3.45 and 3.39 ½-3.34

WHEAT: Considering that last week’s rally in the Dec wheat never did produce a close above our BIG RESISTANCE CLUSTER at 5.51-5.58 ½, AND the subsequent drop has now resulted in a clear, "five-wave pattern", it sure looks like a MAJOR TOP has been confirmed. Note, while there’s a slight chance that we’ll see a FINAL, wave-(c)advance develop in another week or two, it’s rather apparent that the current decline is just an INITIAL, wave-1, or wave-a. Thus, IF we can get a decent wave-2, or wave-b bounce to develop BEFORE prices fall much lower, we should have a VERY HIGH PROBABILITY SELL. Once the next bounce does occur, there should be AT LEAST ONE MORE SHARP DECLINE. AND, we could be in a MUCH LARGER, Primary wave-[c]....which eventually projects to 4.18 ½-4.07 Near-term resistance is at 5.03-5.07 1/4, 5.25 ½-5.32, 5.51-5.58 ½ and 5.78 ½-5.87 3/4, w/support at 5.02, 4.92-4.81 3/4, 4.67 3/4-4.56 3/4 and 4.43-4.32

COTTON: Since the drop from the Oct 15 top in Dec cotton has now SLIGHTLY EXCEEDED the duration from the Sept 25-Oct 2/wave-two decline, it’s possible that a VERY MAJOR TOP HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. However, because there’s still NO VIABLE WAY to label a completed [c]-wave off the Aug low, AND the Oct top of 69.49 did NOT occur at ANY of our key resist. numbers, I’m still hoping that we’re only in a "wave-four" setback. In this event, once a FINAL, "fifth-wave rally" is traced-out, we should have the BEST SELLING OPPORTUNITY SINCE THE SPRING 2008 TOP. Anyhow, our MINIMUM SELL-ZONE is at 70.06-70.50, with the BEST AREA AT 72.15-72.70. Near-term resistance is at 67.50-68.04, with the support at 67.37-67.10, 66.50, 65.66-64.81 and 63.52-63.14 MAXIMUM!

HOGS: Given that our expected "penetration" of the LAST CRITICAL RESISTANCE AREA (AT 55.50-55.95) has now transpired in the Dec hogs, it certainly looks like BULLISH formation is at hand. In short, because we’ve now not only confirmed a completed, [a]-[b]-[c]decline from the 2008 top, but the wave-progression from the Aug low (43.05) also appears to be right in the "heart" of a wave-3-of-(c),OR wave-3-of-(3), I’d say our prediction of a rally to the key 60.77-61.12 level "could be low". Note, that this BIG RESISTANCE ZONE yields the 38.2%-61.8%-retracement combination from the 2008/2009 highs, AND appreciations of 194.43% and 41.15% from the 1998/2009 lows. Anyhow, IF we can get a pullback BEFORE prices go much higher, traders should try and get long. KEY SUPPORT is now at 57.15, 55.62-55.25 (BEST!), 54.20 and 53.30-52.60 MAX!, with the near-term resistance at 57.22-57.92 and 59.27-59.50.

ELLIOTT WAVE FUTURES MONITOR

SILVER: Given that the decline from the Oct 14 high in Dec silver (18.175)has now CLEARLY EXCEEDED BOTH the greatest "duration" AND "magnitude" of ANY OTHER DROP in the past several months, it’s HIGHLY LIKELY that we have indeed confirmed a completed "leg-up" from the July bottom. In which case, the LEAST BEARISH COUNT now calls for a Primary wave-[b] decline to AT LEAST the 14.70-14.43 level; if not to 13.91-13.72. However, IF we’ve actually completed the entire advance from the 2008 low, which is probably the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, then a MUCH LARGER DROP should occur. In this case, we should now see a down-move that is AT LEAST 61.8%-the length of the 2008/[a]-wave decline. Which, yields a MINIMUM TARGET at about 10.59-to-10.16. Thus, assuming the next 1-to-2-day bounce looks more like a "bearish-three" on the intra-day charts (as opposed to a "bullish-five), we’ll attempt to ADD to our short-position. Resistance is at 16.70-16.895, 17.125-17.245 and 17.94-18.17, with the support at 16.665, 16.37-16.19, 15.72-15.41, 15.15-15.03, 14.70-14.43 and 13.91-13.72.

STOCKS: Since the Dec S&P has now dropped to our MINIMUM TARGET; at the 14.58%-27.25%-retracement combination from the Mar and July lows, AND depreciations of 34.55% and 5.568% from the 2007 and 2009 highs, or 1038.50-to-1035.25, I’m inclined to take a shot at the long-side...using a fairly tight-stop. If this area "holds", then a wave-(9) advance to 1125.75-1132.50 will be indicated. Of course, it’s also possible that a LARGER, Primary wave-[4] decline is unfolding here. In which case, since it should "mirror" the June-July/Primary wave-[2] drop, we’d probably be looking a considerably BIGGER MOVE DOWN to about the 1000.00-995.00 level. The MINIMUM TARGET in this case, however, is actually at 1019.00-1009.50. Near-term support is at 1067.50-1060.00, 1046.00 and 1026.25, with the resistance now at 1058.00 (?), 1067.00-1077.25 (good!), 1099.00-1103.25 and 1125.75-1132.50.

COFFEE: Although I suppose it’s possible that a major top could have been hit in the coffee, I CAN’T see how the advance from the Sept 29 low could have been of the same-degree as the Dec 2008-June 2009/A-wave rally. Thus, at least for now, the BEST COUNT here indicates that we’ve probably ONLY finished an INITIAL, wave-one section up. In which case, once the current, wave-two drop ends, a VERY BULLISH-POSITION will be at hand. At that point, the pattern will call for a wave-[3]-of-CYCLE-WAVE-C advance, with a MINIMUM TARGET AT 154.10-156.85. Anyhow, while I still CAN NOT RULE-OUT the possibility of a decline to our MAX SUPPORT AT 130.85-128.65, THE BEST SUPPORT/BUY-ZONE clearly occurs at the 135.50-134.70 level. There’s also some support at 132.40-131.95, with the resistance now at 136.70-138.35, 139.60-140.40, 143.75 and 146.10-147.10.

COCOA: Since a MAJOR PULLBACK (IF NOT A MAJOR TOP) is seemingly WAY OVERDUE in the cocoa market, it certainly WOULD NOT be a surprise if prices "tanked". However, because last week’s 3412 high fell well-short of our next resistance area at 3443-3461, AND the longer-term pattern appears to favor a rally to AT LEAST THE 3542-3590 LEVEL, aggressive traders should probably be looking to go long here. I have NO IDEA where to buy, however, AND the risk is VERY HIGH, so I’m standing-aside. Support for Dec is at 3324, 3285, 3245, 3206,3166 and 3126

OJ: Again, since it’s now not only possible to label a completed,TRIPLE-THREE off the Feb low in OJ, but last week’s 118.20 high (Nov) also occurred right at our longstanding, MINIMUM TARGET of 117.55-119.95, I can make a pretty good case for a MAJOR TOP. Note, IF a wave-[a],OR CYCLE-WAVE-B has peaked here,then we’d be looking a decline to AT LEAST the 90.00-to-91.00 level, and it could be A LOT MORE than that. Thus, since we also appear to have traced-out an INITIAL, "five-wave drop" on the intra-day charts, aggressive traders ought to SELL the current bounce. Resist. for Jan is at 117.95-118.75 and 121.55-123.95

NEW TRADES AND OPEN POSITIONS 10/30/09

HOGS: Traders can buy the Dec hogs at 55.55, using a stop at 53.80.

SILVER: We are short a Dec mini silver at 17.925(+$1,270). Keep stop at 17.37

STOCKS: HRT bought the Dec mini S&P at 1039.00(+$1,050).RAISE stop to 1045.75

COFFEE: HRT are long Dec coffee at 135.55 (+$450). RAISE the stop to 134.15.

OJ: HRT are short Jan OJ from 117.75 (+$37). Keep the stop at 121.65.