brent harris elliott wave
futures market advisory service

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s&p 500 (jan. 31, 2009)

while there is (so far) every reason to believe that our preferred, long-term count in stocks is correct, in that a tremendous, super-cycle-wave-four low is either already in place, or it will be within the next month or so, the short-term pattern is at a rather critical position...now! in short, because the november-january rally in the s&p (739.00-942.75) equaled the greatest duration of any other advance since the october 2007 high, and a fairly sharp-drop immediately followed, the action over the next week or two should be very "telling". if prices are unable to close back above key resistance at about 913.50-920.00 by the first, or second-week in february, then we�ll have to figure that a larger, primary wave-[5] decline is developing-off the january top. in which case, we should see one last drop to new lows...probably by late feb.-to-mid-march. our optimum buy-zones for which (under this scenario) will be at 723.00-720.25 and/or 703.00-699.75 maximum! on the other hand, however, in the event a close above 920.00 occurs first, then we�ll have to figure that prices are going to also exceed the january top (942.75). given this development, since a completed, c-wave decline from the october 2007 top will be strongly confirmed, we�d have to figure that the entire, 8 3/4-year bear cycle is already over ,i.e., at the november 2008 low of 739.00. since this count suggests that we are just now entering a primary wave-[3], of a larger, cycle-wave-one advance, prices could really "explode" over the next few months. anyhow, either way, as long as we do not see a close below 699.75 in the s&p, i�m bullish as heck on stocks. if a close below 699.75 does occur, however, things could get a lot uglier....as my "time-analysis" will then indicate a continuing bear market into 2013.

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